For the first time since 1970, there will be a new primary tiebreaker at the World Cup. In 2026, head-to-head results will be looked at first when determining how to differentiate between teams on equal points.

How’s that going to change how squads prepare for and play out matches? The most significant difference will likely be teams not running up scores on outclassed competition as often as they had been doing in similar types of matchups.

History of tiebreakers

Prior to the 1962 World Cup, tiebreaker matches were played to determine who would move on from the group stage. In 1962 and 1966, goal average (goals scored divided by goals allowed) was used. Goal difference was first utilized in 1970, and that remained the primary tiebreaker until 2022.

2026 regulations

Article 13 of the official regulations for the 2026 World Cup states that the primary tiebreaker will be “superior goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned.” Next will be the number of goals scored in head-to-head contests, which is applicable if three or more teams are in the stalemate.

Only then is overall goal difference used, followed by goals scored in all matches. After that are tiebreakers related to yellow and red cards and the FIFA World Ranking, going back historically as far as is necessary to break the tie. The latter tiebreaker is also a new development and replaces the drawing of lots.

Other than the head-to-head ones, those same tiebreakers will be utilized to differentiate between third-place teams on the same number of points when deciding which eight of those 12 will advance.

Interestingly, focusing on head-to-head results is even a change from the qualifying process for this same World Cup. In the official regulations for 2026 World Cup qualifying, goal difference is listed as the primary tiebreaker. Also, drawing of lots was the final tiebreaker for that stage of the competition with the FIFA World Ranking not playing any role whatsoever.

Why the change?

It doesn’t appear that FIFA has publicized why this change was made, but many are assuming that it’s because of the substantial differences in skill levels between teams at this World Cup. More to the point, matches with lopsided scores are much more possible at this edition than had been the case previously.

For example, at the 2022 World Cup, there were three teams (9% of 32) that were ranked No. 49 or higher in the FIFA World Ranking when the draw was held: No. 49 Saudi Arabia, No. 51 Qatar and No. 60 Ghana.

Conversely, there will be 13 sides (27% of 48) playing in 2026 that were ranked 49th or lower in the FIFA World Ranking when that draw was held. Those were No. 50 Uzbekistan, No. 51 Qatar, No. 56 DR Congo, No. 58 Iraq, No. 60 Saudi Arabia, No. 61 South Africa, No. 66 Jordan, No. 68 Cape Verde, No. 71 Bosnia and Herzegovina, No. 72 Ghana, No. 82 Curacao, No. 84 Haiti and No. 86 New Zealand.

FIFA likely came to the conclusion that changing the primary tiebreaker to head-to-head results will bring down how often significant margins of victory occur and how large those margins will be.

Examples

Here’s an example of how this could work. If Belgium and Egypt may end up equal on points in the final table but the Belgians had beaten the Egyptians, 1-0, in their head-to-head meeting, both sides will know that overall goal difference won’t matter as far as breaking a stalemate between them goes.

So, in that scenario, Belgium wouldn’t be looking to run up the score in its final contest with presumably overmatched New Zealand for that reason although the Benelux side may need to for other ones.

Also of note is that if one country has six points, two have three and one has zero entering the final matchday, the country at the top will have already clinched first place if it had beaten the two three-point teams. In that case, the result of its final match against the zero-point side won’t matter at all, not even if it’s a win or not.

For example, if Belgium has six points, Egypt and Iran three and New Zealand zero, the score in the Belgium-New Zealand match on the final matchday won’t matter for Belgium since the Belgians would already be group winners. In fact, it also wouldn’t matter for New Zealand as far as qualification for the knockout phase goes as it’d already be eliminated having lost head-to-head to both Egypt and Iran prior to that point.

How will teams respond to these new tiebreakers?

In addition to simply not needing to pile up the goals in the above examples and likely putting out less offensive formations in those circumstances, countries may, right from the start of the World Cup, place more of a focus on showdowns with other top sides and less on trying to run up the scores against weaker opposition.

And, of course, none of these types of adjustments will be new to many managers and players since UEFA’s used this format for years.

Conclusion

This change in the primary tiebreaker used at this summer’s World Cup will alter how teams prepare for matches and the changes that they make during them. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, and Sofascore will help you keep track of these changes by providing formations, goals scored and overall statistical analysis for each of the games.