The top seed Aryna Sabalenka meets third seed Jessica Pegula in the US Open women’s singles semifinals at Arthur Ashe Stadium. The stage is set for a hardcourt outdoor battle between two of the tour’s most reliable performers.

Both arrive unbeaten in New York this fortnight, each on a five-match run. With form lines tight and a long rivalry behind them, this semifinal has the makings of a methodical, high-quality contest.

The setting: seeds, surface, and stakes

The top seed Aryna Sabalenka meets third seed Jessica Pegula in the US Open women’s singles semifinals at Arthur Ashe Stadium. It is a hardcourt outdoor showdown that fits both game styles. Sabalenka arrives as world No. 1 with a clean run through five matches at Flushing Meadows. Pegula matches that perfect record and looks comfortable on this surface and stage. The primetime billing fits a rivalry that has steadily grown in stakes and quality.

The winner moves on to play for the title in New York. Both players have stacked efficient numbers across serve and return in this tournament. The semifinal sits within the WTA’s marquee event, the US Open, Women, where momentum can flip quickly. You can follow point-by-point on the Sofascore match page as the action unfolds.

Head-to-head history and previous meetings

Sabalenka leads the head to head 7-3 against Pegula according to Sofascore data. The margins are usually slim, yet the aggregate favors the top seed. At the US Open specifically, Sabalenka has won both prior meetings between the pair. One of those was a straight-sets result, the other went three sets, which mirrors their contrast in styles. Pegula did claim the most recent win between them in Berlin, showing she can flip the script on faster courts.

They also split notable meetings at season-ending events, including a Group stage battle settled in three sets in Sabalenka’s favor. Pegula has posted wins in Wuhan and at the WTA Finals in Cancun, reminders that her baseline patterns can blunt power. On clay their record has tilted toward Sabalenka too, with three clay wins tallied for the Belarusian in this matchup. Hardcourts remain the most relevant guide here, where Sabalenka’s first-strike tennis has often drawn early scoreboard pressure. Even so, Pegula’s ability to extend rallies and change direction off both wings has turned this into a genuine chess match.

Form guide in New York: serve, return, and clutch markers

Through five matches each, Sabalenka and Pegula both stand at 5 wins with no tiebreak losses recorded. Sabalenka has taken two tiebreaks out of two, a perfect mark that signals comfort in tight moments. Pegula has not played a tiebreak this fortnight, which leaves her decider sample blank but her set management strong. On serve, Sabalenka has produced 32 aces and averaged 6.4 per match. Pegula sits at 25 aces with a 5.0 average, keeping her service games moving without over-reliance on free points.

First-serve percentage slightly favors Pegula at 69.44 percent, while Sabalenka is at 66.56 percent. Yet Sabalenka wins a higher share behind the first ball at 71.86 percent compared to Pegula’s 68.44 percent. Second-serve effectiveness is nearly level, with Sabalenka at 58.00 percent points won and Pegula at 58.59 percent. Sabalenka has converted 22 of 46 break points for 47.83 percent, whereas Pegula has gone 23 of 57 for 40.35 percent. Pegula has faced more danger on serve at 35 break points against but has saved a sturdy 68.57 percent, better than Sabalenka’s 50.00 percent from 20 chances.

Key tactical themes to watch

The first pattern to watch is Pegula’s return depth against Sabalenka’s high-pace first strike. If Sabalenka reaches her usual first-serve points won number, she can free up her forehand to dictate early. Pegula’s higher first-serve in rate suggests plenty of free starts to rallies, which helps her play plus-one patterns with margin. The conversion gap on break points indicates Sabalenka has been slightly sharper when chances arise. However, Pegula’s superior save rate shows she can absorb pressure and still hold in clutch moments.

Winners and errors also frame the balance, with Sabalenka at 133 winners against 100 unforced errors for a positive spread. Pegula’s 114 winners and 103 unforced errors underline a steadier, lower-variance approach from the baseline. If the match stretches into long exchanges, Pegula’s consistency could tilt patches of play her way. If the exchanges stay short behind first serves, Sabalenka’s power advantage becomes more pronounced. Given both are five wins deep in New York, momentum swings and mid-match adjustments should be decisive.

Statistical breakdown

Aryna Sabalenka is the featured home player to watch, and her tournament output explains why. She leads this matchup in aces, first-serve points won, and break-point conversion, which feeds her front-foot style. The world No. 1 has also handled tiebreaks cleanly, winning both she has played. Her winners tally sits at 133, a sign that she is finding lines without overextending. Track her live numbers and post-match Sofascore Rating on the match page as the semifinal unfolds.

Jessica Pegula anchors the away spotlight thanks to a reliable serve pattern and top-tier resilience under pressure. She has saved 68.57 percent of break points faced across the tournament and posted the highest first-serve percentage of the pair. With 114 winners and tight error control, she often builds holds through placement and pace variation. As world No. 3 and a hardcourt specialist, her ability to redirect pace down the line can unlock crucial breaks. Fans can explore every set, game, and point on Sofascore, plus dive into the broader US Open, Women draw and match-by-match stats.

How to follow

All eyes turn to Arthur Ashe Stadium for a semifinal that blends pace with precision. Use Sofascore for live scores, detailed point progression, and post-match Sofascore Rating once the result is in. The rivalry has history, the numbers point to a tight contest, and the stakes are clear. Sabalenka’s power against Pegula’s control should keep the scoreboard moving. Settle in, track the data, and enjoy one of the US Open’s standout matchups.