Argentina arrive at the decisive moment with a good problem. Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez have both logged meaningful minutes at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, but in very different ways. The attached data shows clear contrasts in finishing, movement and chance creation. Picking the No 9 for the World Cup final comes down to what Lionel Scaloni wants from the first whistle. Here is how the numbers stack up, and what they suggest for Argentina’s best starting plan. You can follow the final on Sofascore, with live momentum, lineups and the always-useful Sofascore Rating.

Finishing returns: goals and conversion

Lautaro’s case starts with end product. He has 3 goals at this World Cup from 8 shots excluding blocks. He hit the target 4 times and delivered a conversion rate of 30%. Álvarez has 1 goal from 9 shots excluding blocks, with 5 on target. His conversion rate sits at 9.09%, which is far lower than Martínez’s mark.

Those figures hint at a clear finishing edge for the Inter striker. With a similar shooting volume, Martínez turned chances into goals far more efficiently. Álvarez found good positions and worked the keeper, but his shots did not translate into goals as often. In a single-match scenario like a final, that difference matters. If Argentina want the most reliable finisher in the box from minute one, the numbers point to Martínez.

Shot profile and penalty-box activity

Álvarez leads for box activity. He has 21 touches in the opposition box, the most between the pair. He also attempted more shots and put more on frame. That shows relentless movement and a knack for arriving in dangerous areas. It also suggests he can stretch a back line and keep defenders busy.

Martínez, meanwhile, has 13 touches in the box and one fewer shot excluding blocks. Yet he still scored three times. That balance tells a simple story. Álvarez reaches promising zones more often, but Martínez makes more of the touches he gets. For a tight final, efficiency may outweigh volume.

Creativity, carry and fouls won

There is also value in link play. Martínez has 1 assist and 5 chances created in the tournament. He adds 5 fouls won, which helps Argentina gain territory and set-piece opportunities. Those small wins add up over 90 minutes and can tilt momentum. They also relieve pressure when Argentina need a breather.

Álvarez is not far behind on supply with 4 chances created. He has 0 assists but did complete 3 take-ons, which signals ball-carrying threat in tight spaces. That dribbling can pull markers and open passing lanes for teammates. He won 3 fouls, a useful but smaller total than Martínez’s figure. In short, Lautaro combines finishing with handy connective play, while Álvarez brings extra carrying and constant movement.

Who should start the World Cup final?

If the brief is simple — score the first big chance — the data favors Lautaro. Three goals, a 30% conversion rate and a positive return on chances created make him the safer starting No 9. He has matched Álvarez’s volume closely but produced far more. That is the profile you want leading the line from kickoff in a final.

Álvarez should still be central to the plan. His 21 box touches and 5 shots on target show he finds space and forces saves. He is an ideal second-half change if the game needs more running behind or an injection of pressing energy. He can also pair with Martínez if Argentina chase a goal, letting Lautaro attack crosses while Álvarez darts across the line. Based on this dataset, start Martínez, keep Álvarez ready to change the tempo, and adjust as the match state evolves on Sofascore.

Argentina’s best opening look is Lautaro at center-forward, with Álvarez primed for impact. The tournament numbers are clear about finishing and still respectful of work rate and movement. It is a good selection problem to have before the biggest game. Keep an eye on how the roles unfold live, and track every chance, duel and Sofascore Rating as the final plays out.