Playoff smell is in the air. If you know where to look, the late regular season and early playoffs are full of clues about the road to the title race.

Teams with high defensive energy and efficient metrics often do well when the pace slows during playoffs. Other factors like late-season momentum and lower-seed upsets have a lot of buzz but less statistical relevance.

Let’s put on our armchair statistician hats and try to read the tea leaves on what early playoff trends might mean for the title race.

The Regular-Season Momentum Myth

Since the All-Star break, the San Antonio Spurs have been on a massive hot streak. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games and gone 21-3 since the break.

But hot regular-season streaks don’t usually carry over to the playoffs. Historically, teams that have entered the playoffs on a late hot streak have performed about the same as average teams at their level. A team’s late-season form is less predictive of their playoff success than other metrics like their overall record, net rating, and wins against quality opponents.

The D

Playoff basketball tends to run about 10% slower than the regular season. Defenses focus and try to contest everything, force more turnovers, and make their opponents more inefficient.

Teams that maintain or improve their defensive rating early in the playoffs generally dominate their rounds and have a greater chance of reaching the Finals. A late-season defensive surge or flop often predicts playoff success or failure more than a team’s regular-season record.

Watch for teams that keep their defensive rating under 110 in the first round of the playoffs, especially on the road. Teams that hold their opponents under 110 points per game while forcing 15+ turnovers are historically hard to beat.

Playoff Momentum

Game 1 dominance usually sets the tone of a playoff series. In the NBA, teams that win the first game of a best-of-7 series go on to win the series about 76% of the time.

When a team wins their first two games of a playoff series, they win the series around 93% of the time. In the first round, a 2-0 lead is nearly insurmountable.

The Gatekeeper

LeBron James never lost a first-round playoff series in the first 14 years of his career. His teams usually dominate early playoff games. When he’s been healthy, his teams have a postseason record of 15-3 in first-round series.

This year, the other two members of LeBron’s reverse-Oreo Big Three, Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, are currently recovering from serious late-season injuries. They’ll probably miss at least the first round of the playoffs, and maybe more.

Right now, LeBron’s Los Angeles Lakers are in fourth place in the West. They’re set to take on the fifth-place Houston Rockets, who are currently on a 7-game win streak. If LeBron can’t find a way to almost single-handedly take out the Kevin Durant Rockets at age 41, his first-round numbers may be in jeopardy.

Upsets

If you’re a fan of underdogs, this won’t be good news. Only six No. 8 seeds have ever beaten a No. 1 seed in an NBA first-round playoff series. And when a much lower seed does beat a much higher seed, the lower seed usually gets knocked off in the next round.

But first-round upsets are generally great news for the other high seeds. When a presumed title favorite gets booted early, it makes the path much easier for the second- and third-best teams.

Stable Rotations

Teams that end up champions generally use a stable rotation of around eight to 10 guys in their playoff games, with no major rotation experiments. The bench players in those stable, successful rotations are usually consistent scorers who can keep the team’s net rating positive when the stars are resting. Champion benches tend to play around 20 minutes per night and put up around 30-40 points per game.

Early playoffs expose thin benches fast. Keep an eye out for teams with two or three quality bench guys rather than an army of contributors. Benches that emphasize quality over quantity are also often better at absorbing injuries to starters without the team collapsing.

Clutch Execution

Clutch execution separates the good teams from the real title threats. Tough games are usually decided in the final five minutes. Teams that win close games in the regular season often perform better in the playoffs.

Perhaps the most important contributor to a team’s clutch execution is having a true closer. Clutch players who can seal close games know how to make big shots without forcing bad ones.

Look out for teams with a positive clutch net rating and a high assist-to-turnover rate in crunch time. Teams with a habit of making strong defensive stops in the final minute of close games send a strong championship signal.

Superstar Health

Playoff success often comes down to which teams can keep their stars healthy. Star injuries can doom even the best teams. Teams that can rest their best players smartly in the early rounds generally go further than teams that only win when their stars play heavy minutes.

Playoff Nostradamus

Regular-season clutch execution, defense, and superstar health can often tell us a lot about the title race even before a single playoff game is played. In early playoff rounds, teams that win the first few games and keep their opponents under 110 points tend to make deep runs.

As playoff intensity rises, keep your eye on teams that stick to stable rotations of around eight quality players. When the games get close, look for teams with a true closer capable of making big shots at crucial moments.