A qualifier against the No. 8 seed on Court Philippe Chatrier. That is a fun way to wrap a French Open fortnight. Mirra Andreeva meets Maja Chwalinska in the WTA final on red clay in Paris, with contrasting serving profiles and a few neat pressure stats to keep in mind. Below is a quick, data-led look at what might shape the match, plus the current odds in decimal format. You can follow the final point by point on Sofascore.

Stage set on Court Philippe Chatrier

This is the Final of the French Open Women Singles 2026, played on red clay at Court Philippe Chatrier in Paris. Mirra Andreeva arrives as the No. 8 seed and holds a current ranking of 6. Maja Chwalinska comes in as a qualifier, with a current ranking of 30. The clay stage and the size of the court usually reward consistency, the ability to reset between rallies, and clean decision-making under pressure.

Across their recent sample, both players have stacked wins to reach this stage. Chwalinska shows 9 wins from 9 matches in the dataset. Andreeva shows 6 wins from 6. That gives us two players entering the final on streaks, albeit from different sample sizes, and with different ways of creating scoreboard pressure.

Serving patterns to watch

Chwalinska lands a high percentage of first serves at 72.58%, which should give her a good platform to start points on the front foot. She wins 62.96% of those first-serve points and a solid 59.48% behind the second serve. Her double-fault average is low at 1.11 per match, and she has 4 aces across this stretch. The left-handed delivery can pull opponents wide on clay, and the numbers point to steady, low-error service games.

Andreeva brings more first-serve punch, winning 71.04% of first-serve points with 9 total aces and a higher 1.50 aces per match. Her first-serve in rate is 66.17%, which is lower than Chwalinska’s but still healthy. The flip side is a more vulnerable second serve at 53.10% points won, with a higher average of 2.67 double faults. If Andreeva finds her first serve often enough, the numbers favor her hold rate. If she dips into second serves too much, Chwalinska’s return could test her.

Returning, break points and rallies

Chwalinska has been effective on return with 47 breaks from 75 chances, a 62.67% conversion rate. She has faced 48 break points and saved 56.25% of them, showing decent resistance on serve. She also leads the tiebreak sample 3–0, which is a small but tidy note if sets run close. Her 116 total winners against 100 unforced errors suggest a balanced risk level across these matches.

Andreeva converts break points at 55.56% and has faced just 26 break points in total, saving an excellent 73.08%. That shows her baseline level on serve is hard to crack, especially when the score tightens. She has 118 total winners but also 151 unforced errors, which hints at a higher-variance approach that can overwhelm or occasionally open the door. If she keeps the errors in check, her first-serve strength should carry weight. If not, Chwalinska’s steadier numbers could extend rallies and swing key games.

Odds and match tempo

The full-time market lists Andreeva at 1.25 and Chwalinska at 4.00. That prices the No. 8 seed as a strong favorite, largely in line with her first-serve efficiency and break-point defense. The total games line sits at 19.5, with Over 1.80 and Under 1.91. Markets are close to neutral on match length, which fits a final that could feature one tight set if Chwalinska’s return bites.

From a tempo angle, expect the first-serve battle to set the tone early. Andreeva will try to keep points short behind that strong first ball. Chwalinska’s path is to test second serves, extend exchanges, and lean on her solid conversion and low double-fault profile. However it unfolds, you can track live momentum, point-by-point updates, and match stats on Sofascore throughout the final.