Croatia host Spain at Stadion Poljud in Split in Round 4 of the UEFA Nations League, League A Group 3. It is a marquee night between the FIFA No. 13 and No. 1 ranked national teams, and the stage is set in front of 34,198 seats and a famously sharp atmosphere. The officiating crew is led by Belgian referee Eric Lambrechts, who has shown 1,417 yellow cards, 37 reds and 39 second yellows across 347 matches. Lineups are not confirmed yet, so keep an eye on the match page on Sofascore for live updates.

Both teams have used a 4-2-3-1 shape in this competition and the personnel hints support more of the same. For Croatia, names to expect from recent selections include Dominik Livaković, Josip Stanišić, Josip Šutalo, Luka Vušković, Joško Gvardiol, Josip Mišić, Luka Modrić, Ivan Perišić, Petar Sučić, Martin Baturina and Ante Budimir. Spain’s recent selections point to David Raya, Iván Fresneda, Robin Le Normand, Aymeric Laporte, Fran García, Rodri, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, Dani Olmo, Alex Baena and Roberto Fernández. The coaching subplot is appealing too: Slaven Bilić meets Luis de la Fuente, and the manager head-to-head currently leans Spain’s way at 1–0.

Form guide and streaks to know

Spain step in on a 10-match winning run and a 21-match unbeaten streak, which neatly explains their rhythm at the top level. They have also scored first in 10 of their last 10 games, a sign of early control. Spain have not kept a clean sheet in their last three, but they have navigated those games with comfort thanks to volume and efficiency in possession. Corners have trended low for La Roja, with fewer than 10.5 corners in 10 of their last 10 matches. That often reflects matches where Spain keep the ball in safe areas and pick better entries rather than chase repeated set pieces.

Croatia’s recent pattern says goals. Five of their last five have gone over 2.5 total, and four of those featured both teams scoring. At the same time, Croatia are five straight without a clean sheet, which puts pressure on the back line against a fluid Spanish attack. Card trends point to a measured contest in Split, with Croatia seeing under 4.5 cards in nine of their last 10. Corners have also been modest for Croatia, with fewer than 10.5 in six of their last seven. Add these together, and fans can expect tempo and territory to matter more than chaos, at least early on.

Head-to-head, recent meetings and what they tell us

The long-view history gives Spain the edge: six wins to Croatia’s two, with no draws. Recent results are fresh in the memory. Spain won 4–1 earlier in this Nations League group, which followed a 3–0 win at Euro 2024 in Group B. The 2023 Nations League final between these sides ended 0–0 before Spain triumphed on penalties. And in a wild Euro 2020 knockout, Spain prevailed 5–3 after extra time. Croatia’s last victory over Spain came in November 2018, a 3–2 thriller in Zagreb, while Spain posted a 6–0 home win earlier in that same 2018 Nations League cycle.

Trends between the teams are clear. Six of the last seven meetings finished with over 2.5 goals, which fits the high-craft attackers on both sides. Card counts have stayed low, with six of the last seven head-to-heads ending under 4.5 cards. Corners have been consistently modest too, with all of the last seven finishing under 10.5 corners. In short, the rivalry usually gives us quality in the final third, not a set-piece slog. With Spain’s recent streaks and Croatia’s goal-heavy form, that picture still tracks.

Tactical snapshot by the numbers

The possession gap is notable: Spain average 62.0 percent of the ball, while Croatia sit at 42.7 percent. Spain have completed 1,729 of 1,900 passes at 91 percent, including 878 accurate passes in the opposition half at 88.0 percent. Croatia’s build is capable but more direct, with 1,149 of 1,332 passes completed for 86.3 percent. Spain are also more progressive with their long distribution, hitting 51 of 81 long balls at 63.0 percent; Croatia stand at 41 of 76 for 54.0 percent.

Final-third quality favors Spain so far. They have 49 total shots to Croatia’s 33, plus a 22–8 edge in shots on target. Expected goals back that up, with Spain at 7.03 xG to Croatia’s 3.69 xG. Spain have created 11 big chances and missed eight, while Croatia have created five and missed three. In the air, Spain win 64.0 percent of their duels, while Croatia sit at 39.4 percent. Dribble output is close, with Spain at 16 successful dribbles from 46 attempts and Croatia at 14 from 32. Cross efficiency is similar, with Spain at 28.6 percent accuracy and Croatia at 32.0 percent. All signs point to Spain carrying the ball and Croatia looking to spring in transition and on crosses.

Players to watch

Croatia: Luka Modrić owns the highest average Sofascore Rating in the squad for this competition at 7.23. He has 1 goal from 2 shots, both on target, and 108 accurate passes at 92.31 percent. Modrić has placed 34 passes in the final third, delivered 8 accurate long balls at 80 percent, and recorded 6 interceptions in 142 minutes. His touch count sits at 141, and he has won two thirds of his ground duels. Around him, Ivan Perišić has 2 assists and a team-high 5 key passes, adding 5 tackles and 6 clearances. Mateo Kovačić leads Croatia in accurate passes with 141 at 92.16 percent and has produced 4 key passes and 0.81 xG. Joško Gvardiol remains a defensive anchor with 6 tackles, 10 clearances and steady distribution.

Spain: Lamine Yamal leads this matchup’s star list with an average Sofascore Rating of 8.53. He has 4 goals and 1 assist, 7 key passes, and 11 shots with 4 on target. All four goals came from inside the box and with his left foot, and he has created 2 big chances as well. His work rate shows in 32 sprints, a 34.9 km/h top speed, plus 6 tackles and 5 interceptions. Around him, Rodri’s 7.5 average Sofascore Rating is fueled by metronomic play and 14 accurate long balls. Alex Baena adds 1 goal, 2 assists, 6 shots on target and 3 big chances created. Aymeric Laporte is tidy at the back with 165 accurate passes at 94.29 percent, while Pau Cubarsí has piled up 9 clearances across two outings.

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