Hamburger SV opened their Bundesliga season with three defeats, no goals scored and 12 conceded. Three games later they are ninth, on nine points, and the relegation talk has gone quiet.

The swing from 0:12 after three rounds to three straight wins is one of the sharpest turnarounds of the young season. Sofascore’s database shows where it came from, which numbers still look uncomfortable and who has driven it.

The worst start in the club’s history

HSV began away at Borussia Dortmund and lost 2:0. It was the most competitive of the three games: Dortmund had 20 shots to HSV’s eight and an expected-goals (xG) edge of 1.51 to 0.91, and Daniel Fernandes made five saves for a Sofascore rating of 8.4, his best of the season so far.

Then it fell apart. At home to Mainz, HSV had 55% of the ball but only one shot on target from eight attempts (0.19 xG), while Mainz scored five from 2.77 xG with eight shots on target and five big chances. At RB Leipzig the result was the same, 5:0, with HSV on 36% possession and Leipzig on 2.43 xG.

Over those three games HSV created 2.2 xG and conceded 6.7 xG in return. They actually let in 12 goals, 5.3 more than the model expected, and scored none. Defeats with a goal difference of 0:12 were enough for the club to be written off as one of the favourites to go down.

Three wins on a third of the ball

The next three games were the mirror image. HSV beat 1. FC Köln 2:1 at home, won 3:2 at Hoffenheim and then edged VfB Stuttgart 1:0, scoring six and conceding three. Only Bayer Leverkusen also took nine points from rounds four to six.

The nine points lifted HSV to ninth place. They are level with RB Leipzig and Werder Bremen, four clear of 16th-placed Paderborn and five behind leaders Bayern and Dortmund.

The data says this was resilience rather than dominance. HSV had 32%, 36% and 34% of the ball in the three wins and were outshot 59 to 41. But they won the expected-goals battle against Köln (1.45 to 1.41) and Hoffenheim (1.28 to 0.93), and Fernandes made five saves in the 1:0 against Stuttgart, who had 24 shots and 2.28 xG.

HSV’s first six Bundesliga games:

Round	Opponent	Result	HSV xG	Opp. xG	HSV possession	Shots (HSV–opp.)
1	Dortmund (A)	0:2	0.91	1.51	44%	8–20
2	Mainz (H)	0:5	0.19	2.77	55%	8–17
3	Leipzig (A)	0:5	1.10	2.43	36%	10–19
4	Köln (H)	2:1	1.45	1.41	32%	12–18
5	Hoffenheim (A)	3:2	1.28	0.93	36%	15–17
6	Stuttgart (H)	1:0	1.50	2.28	34%	14–24

Miro Muheim: two goals and an assist in two games

The most surprising name in the revival is a midfielder. Miro Muheim, who has been dealing with injury problems, did not play in the first four rounds. He came on at Hoffenheim, scored and set up another goal in 49 minutes, and was rated 7.7 on Sofascore. Against Stuttgart he started, played 90 minutes and scored the only goal of the game, with a rating of 8.0.

His average rating of 7.85 is the highest in the HSV squad this season. The goals are also out of character: Muheim had 33 Bundesliga appearances without a goal before this season, 29 of them last year, when he managed four assists. Sofascore’s model gave his two chances a combined expected-goals value of just 0.08.

Muheim’s creativity is the better-established part of his game. In 2024/25 he had 11 assists in the 2. Bundesliga, and he now has one in two top-flight games this season. The Stuttgart goal was set up by El Ouahdi, who played only 12 minutes, so it came late.

The numbers that still worry

HSV is the only team in the top ten with a negative goal difference (−9), and the underlying numbers explain why. They have the lowest average possession in the Bundesliga at 39.5% and the second-lowest expected goals (6.43, ahead only of Paderborn at 5.78). Across six games they have been outshot 115 to 67 and have kept just one clean sheet, against Stuttgart.

The defence has leaked more than the chances suggest. HSV’s expected goals conceded (11.33) is only the ninth-highest in the league, yet their 15 goals conceded are the fourth most, behind Mönchengladbach, Union Berlin and Frankfurt. Fernandes’ goals-prevented figure is −3.9 for the six games, and his ratings swing from 8.4 against Dortmund and 8.0 against Stuttgart to 5.5 against Mainz and 5.7 at Leipzig.

The wins also owed something to finishing. In rounds four to six HSV scored six goals from 4.23 xG, and Muheim’s two goals were worth 0.08 xG between them. Last season HSV finished 13th with 38 points and a goal difference of −14, so a repeat of the form of the last three games would be a real step up.

What comes next

The schedule offers a mix of opportunity and risk. Away trips to Paderborn, who sit 16th with five points, and Eintracht Frankfurt are followed by a home game against Borussia Mönchengladbach, who are still without a point. Trips to Werder Bremen and a home meeting with Bayern then follow. Four points separate HSV from 16th place, a cushion that looked unthinkable after the 5–0 defeat in Leipzig, but one that a poor run could erase quickly.

The underlying numbers explain why caution is warranted. Hamburg have scored six goals from 4.23 expected goals across their three wins, and Muheim’s two goals came from just 0.08 xG, so some regression is likely, while a defence that has conceded 15 times must keep Fernandes at a better level than the early weeks. Yet the turnaround is real: from the worst start in the club’s history to nine points and ninth place in three games. Whatever the label was in August, HSV now look like a side that can compete in this league.