Round 7 of Sofascore Fantasy Premier League has a full slate of 10 matches, the most-owned player in the game at home to Ipswich, and a long injury list that includes Dominik Szoboszlai. The deadline is tomorrow, Saturday 17 October, at 09:00 UTC, so here are the picks that matter.

Round 6 averaged 54.5 points, with a top score of 122, and more than 222,000 managers are now playing. Round 7 runs from Saturday to Monday evening, and every team plays once, so there is no double gameweek to plan around. The limit is three players per club, and Wildcard, Free Hit and Triple Captain are all available in this competition.

Injury and suspension alert

Szoboszlai (Liverpool, 8.0, 18.2% owned) is out with a hamstring injury, and Reece James (Chelsea, 6.3, 10.1% owned) is out with a knee injury. Alex Scott (Bournemouth, 6.0, 6.1% owned) is also listed as missing with a muscle injury, so ignore his high projection until his status changes. Christos Tzolis (Arsenal, 6.3, 5.3% owned) has a hamstring problem, Igor Jesus (Nottingham Forest, 6.0, 4.9% owned) is out with a calf injury, and Nikola Milenković (Forest, 6.5) has a knee injury.

Benjamin Šeško (Manchester United, 7.0, 4.6% owned) is out with a shin injury and Luke Shaw (3.5% owned) is out with a knock. Phil Foden (Manchester City, 6.9) is suspended after a red card, and Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool, 7.0) is suspended. Palace’s Dean Henderson (3.3% owned) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (3.1% owned) are both out with injuries, and Fulham’s Antonee Robinson is doubtful with an ankle problem.

Captain pick: Bruno Fernandes

Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United, 10.8, 42.8% owned) is the pick for the armband. Sofascore projects him for 7.66 points at Leeds, the highest of any player this round, with a 39% goal probability and a 22% assist probability. He has 47 points in six games (7.8 per round), with three goals (one of them a penalty) from 2.59 xG, and 1.46 xA, 20 shots and 15 key passes. He is owned by fewer than half of managers, so it is a smaller commitment than the obvious pick.

The safe choice is Erling Haaland (Manchester City, 12.0, 77.1% owned, the highest ownership in the game). He has six goals from 4.82 xG with 22 shots, and a 75% goal probability at home to Ipswich, easily the highest of the round. His projection is 7.27, behind Fernandes, but if you captain someone else and he scores twice, you will drop a lot of places.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal, 9.6, 21.9% owned) is the premium alternative: 7.12 expected points at Forest, a form rating of 8.0, and three goals (one a penalty) from 3.62 xG with 1.04 xA and 17 shots.

Goalkeepers

Antonín Kinský (Tottenham, 4.6, 3.7% owned) is the value pick. Tottenham have the highest clean-sheet probability of the round (22%) at home to Coventry, and he has two clean sheets and 15 saves in six games. He is cheap enough to fund a premium forward.

Zion Suzuki (Aston Villa, 5.6, 7.3% owned) has the highest projection of any goalkeeper (6.03) for the trip to Newcastle, with 18 saves and a 16% clean-sheet chance. David Raya (Arsenal, 6.8, 29.3% owned) is the premium option: three clean sheets, 46 points, a form rating of 8.3, and a 17% clean-sheet chance at Forest.

On a budget, James Trafford (Leeds, 4.8, 10.8% owned) has 41 points, 24 saves and two clean sheets, but Leeds have only a 5% clean-sheet chance against Manchester United, so he is a saves play. Emiliano Martínez (Chelsea, 5.9, 20.1% owned) has 21 saves in five games and is projected for 5.38 at Everton.

Defenders

Jan Paul van Hecke (Tottenham, 6.5, 6.8% owned) is the standout. He is projected for 6.52, he has 41 points, a form rating of 7.3 and two clean sheets, and Tottenham’s 22% clean-sheet chance at home to Coventry is the best of the round.

António Silva (Bournemouth, 5.0, 1.2% owned) has the highest projection of any defender (6.76) for the home match against Sunderland. Bournemouth have the second-best clean-sheet chance of the round (17%), he has a 15% goal probability and 1.30 xG from six shots, but only 20 points so far, so he is more of a budget option than a proven returner.

Josh King (Fulham, 5.3, 2.6% owned) is a cheap attacking pick at home to Hull, with two goals from 1.54 xG, 14 shots and six key passes, and a 19% goal probability and 11% assist probability. Check on his teammate Robinson before the deadline.

James Tarkowski (Everton, 7.3, 9.8% owned) has the most points of any player in the game (59), with three clean sheets and a form rating of 10.7, though he is pricey and Everton face Chelsea with a 13% clean-sheet chance. Luka Vušković (Brighton, 6.1, 11.3% owned) has 54 points and three clean sheets, but only a 5% clean-sheet probability against Palace.

For a differential, Bobby Thomas (Coventry, 5.2, 1.6% owned) has 47 points, a form rating of 6.7 and is projected for 5.91 even though Coventry are away at Tottenham.

Midfielders

Pascal Groß (Brighton, 6.0, 11.1% owned) is the standout value pick in midfield. His form rating of 13.3 is the highest of any player, and he has 54 points, three goals (one a penalty), four assists, 18 key passes and 2.02 xG. Sofascore projects him at 6.60 at home to Palace, with a 36% goal probability and a 21% assist probability.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton, 6.7, 3.7% owned) returned 16 points in Round 6, has 46 points and a form rating of 9.0, and has 19 shots and 15 key passes (1.39 xG, 0.89 xA). He is projected for 6.23 at home to Chelsea.

Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest, 7.5, 5.4% owned) has a 33% assist probability against Arsenal, the second-highest of the round, and 17 key passes (1.87 xA). Bryan Mbeumo (Manchester United, 8.0, 8.5% owned) has a 43% goal probability, the second-highest of the round behind Haaland, with three goals from 3.31 xG and 21 shots. Owning both Fernandes and Mbeumo doubles up on United’s trip to Leeds, so it is a choice about how much you want to back that one match.

Antoine Semenyo (Manchester City, 7.1, 8.3% owned) has the highest assist probability of any player this round (40%), with three assists from 1.48 xA, though his two goals came from just 0.35 xG.

Rayan Cherki (Manchester City, 9.1, 20.7% owned) has 58 points, four goals and two assists, and is projected for 6.41, but he has played only 395 minutes in six games, which is a rotation risk. If you need a cheap midfielder, Jack Rudoni (Coventry, 4.6, 0.2% owned) has 1.70 xG, 1.15 xA and a projection of 4.69.

Forwards

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds, 6.2, 9.8% owned) has a 42% goal probability against Manchester United, the third-highest of the round. He has three goals from 3.12 xG, 11 shots and a projection of 4.89.

Brian Brobbey (Sunderland, 5.7, 5.9% owned) has three goals from 2.94 xG in 401 minutes and a 34% goal probability at Bournemouth, with a projection of 5.11, the third-highest of any forward. Thierno Barry (Everton, 5.5, 4.1% owned) has 22 shots and 4.40 xG for just three goals, with a 32% goal probability at home to Chelsea, so the underlying numbers say he is due more.

João Pedro (Chelsea, 8.1, 31.8% owned) averages 10.4 points per round, with five goals and three assists in 432 minutes, and has a 35% goal probability at Everton. His five goals came from 2.75 xG, so expect some regression, but his 6.23 projection is the second-highest of any forward.

If you want a premium alternative who is under-owned, Alexander Isak (Liverpool, 8.3, 10.8% owned) has four goals from 3.54 xG and a 37% goal probability at Brentford, but a form rating of 3.0 and a projection of only 4.27.

Players to avoid

Gabriel Magalhães (Arsenal, 7.9, 21.5% owned) averages only 4.83 points per round and is projected for 4.39, and Manchester City’s defenders Joško Gvardiol (7.0, 18.0% owned) and Marc Guéhi (7.3, 14.8% owned) are projected for just 3.83 and 3.95 despite City’s home fixture against Ipswich.

Don’t chase Jordan Henderson (Chelsea, 4.6, 0.4% owned), the top scorer of Round 6 with 19 points: his two goals came from 0.14 xG in 180 minutes and he is projected for 2.75. Igor Thiago (Brentford, 7.4, 5.5% owned) has only eight points and a form rating of 1.7, and Yoane Wissa (Newcastle, 5.6, 11.5% owned) has a form rating of 0.7.

Looking ahead to Round 8

The Round 8 deadline is Friday 23 October at 16:30 UTC. Aston Villa host Manchester City on Saturday 24 October, Arsenal host Everton, Chelsea host Tottenham, and Liverpool host Brighton, with Manchester United at home to Bournemouth on Sunday. Fernandes, Mbeumo, Saka and Raya all have home fixtures, which is another point in favour of holding them if you pick them now.

Summary

Captain Fernandes, with Haaland as the safe alternative. Kinský or Suzuki in goal, van Hecke, Silva and King in defence, Groß and Dewsbury-Hall in midfield, and Calvert-Lewin and Brobbey up front. Replace Szoboszlai, Reece James and any other injured players before 09:00 UTC on Saturday.

All prices, points, ownership, projections, probabilities and injury information are from the Sofascore Fantasy Premier League data at the time of writing.