Roddick’s 2003 US Open victory stands as the last Grand Slam title won by an American man, marking a 22-year drought that the 2025 tournament, scheduled from August 24 to September 7, hopes to end. With US players demonstrating emerging form and talent, there’s a strong sense that this edition could finally mark a significant shift.
The shadow of A-Rod’s 2003 US Open victory has loomed large over American men’s tennis for two decades. His triumph marked the last time an American male won a Grand Slam singles trophy. Throughout the years, many talented American players emerged, each carrying the hopes of a nation, only to fall short at crucial moments. Many reached the quarterfinals, a few even the semifinals and the final, but a final victory remains a mystery.
However, the 2024 season, and particularly the US Open, offered a long-awaited shift in this narrative. There was a sense of renewed optimism surrounding the American contingent. All-American semifinal was previously an unknown scenario that electrified the crowds and sent a clear message that the US men’s tennis was on an upward trajectory. Fritz, Shelton, and Tiafoe’s recent form suggests they are ready to challenge “Sincaraz” on home ground.
Taylor Fritz: The Proven New York Contender
As the 2024 US Open finalist, Fritz has demonstrated his capability to navigate the pressures of Grand Slam tennis in New York. His impressive journey included serving his way through a challenging all-American semifinal against Tiafoe, showcasing his composure and powerful game. More recently, despite losses to Shelton in the Toronto semifinals and an early exit in Cincinnati to ATP no. 136 sensation Terence Atmane, Taylor remains a serious title contender.
While his serve and baseline play are strong, and his tennis IQ is high, his movement, though improved to an adequate level for a top 10 player, remains on the slower side. He has clearly worked on his physique, but natural quickness isn’t his strongest attribute. However, the American top seed seemed to lack that “it” factor. In 2024 against Sinner at the US Open, his backhand appeared to be a weakness, allowing Sinner to dictate points. Better positioning could lead to improved backhand angles, though facing someone with Sinner’s or Alcaraz’s pace makes this challenging.
Over the past three years (2023-2025), there have been notable trends in serve performance. While aces decreased in 2025 compared to previous years, double faults showed a significant improvement. The first serve percentage and first serve points won have both steadily improved, reaching 65% and 80%, respectively, in 2025. However, despite a better break-point conversion rate in 2025, the overall return game has weakened, as evidenced by fewer points won on return, fewer break chances, and fewer return games won compared to 2023. He excels on pressure points (0-30, 15-30, 30-30, or 40-40), winning nearly 70%, which suggests he is mentally solid under stress. Focusing only on hard surfaces, his serve has sharpened even more, and his return has stabilized, making him harder to break – which is crucial for deep runs in New York.
With a favorable draw at the 2025 US Open, the top American tennis player is expected to meet Mensik in the 4th round, followed by a quarterfinal clash against either Djokovic or Tiafoe. Reaching the quarterfinal is crucial, and against Djokovic, he is now considered a strong contender rather than an underdog. A potential semifinal match is set against Alcaraz.
Ben Shelton: The Young Force
Shelton burst onto the scene with an exciting blend of raw talent, fearless aggression, and flamboyant arrogance. His Masters 1000 title in Toronto, coupled with great Grand Slam form in 2025, propelled him to a career-high ranking (ATP no. 6). Ben’s first-strike lefty game, combined with his undeniable swagger under the bright lights of Arthur Ashe Stadium, makes him a crowd favorite and a dangerous opponent. His youthful energy and willingness to take risks could prove to be the perfect recipe for a deep run.
The young jock’s greatest asset is his serve, consistently averaging 126 mph (203 km/h). At the 2023 US Open, he notably hit two 149.0 mph (239.8 km/h) aces in a single game and has reached 150.0 mph (241.4 km/h) on several occasions. As a left-handed player, he generates significant kick on both first and second serves and exhibits power and consistency with both forehand and backhand strokes. Unlike many modern players, he expresses a fondness for net play, highlighting his athletic skills.
Shelton’s serving capabilities peaked in 2024 with leading aces and first-serve percentage. Though slightly lower in 2025, improved double fault and break point statistics still make his serve a major weapon. His return game, however, shows minimal improvement across all surfaces, winning less than 20% of return games. This confirms his serve-dominated playstyle, where success hinges on holding serve due to a lagging return game.
Ben clearly has the most favorable draw among the three. The quarterfinal match against Alcaraz is expected to be his first significant challenge. While their H2H record shows Alcaraz leading 3-0, their recent Roland Garros encounter saw Ben put up a strong fight, and the two previous matches were an exhibition and a 2023 fixture. Despite the H2H record, we expect Ben to deliver a competitive performance.
Frances Tiafoe: The Showman of Ashe
Tiafoe is undeniably a crowd magnet, and he thrives on the energy of the New York night sessions. His thrilling five-set semifinal loss to Fritz in 2024 highlighted his resilience and showmanship. Tiafoe’s ability to command the attention of the audience and elevate his game in crucial moments makes him a compelling figure in any tournament, particularly at the US Open. His comfort on the big US stage could see him go even further in 2025.
Big Foe’s forehand represents a significant asset due to his strong semi-western grip with unusual arm motion, generating considerable spin and power. As one of the strongest players on tour, he is highly adaptable, adjusting his game to opponents and maintaining consistency from the baseline, but also shortening rallies when necessary. His flat, two-handed backhand is comparable to Daniil Medvedev‘s and generally suited for hard surfaces. His serve is also a powerful weapon, averaging 121 mph (195 km/h), contributing to an 80% career service game win rate. His baseline positioning and movement are excellent, making him one of the best defensive players due to his explosiveness and endurance, though he prefers to dictate play. Interestingly, in 2025, his serve has been less impactful (80% hold rate, the weakest in years) compared to American peers like Fritz and Shelton, who rely on booming serves. However, his return game has kept him highly competitive, winning 23% of return games this season, the best among the trio. Big Foe’s assets, especially at the US Open, make him a dangerous underdog, as he is increasingly becoming a return-oriented player.
The player faces a tough draw, starting with Rune, followed by a potential clash with Djokovic in the round of 16. This match against Djokovic would be a critical test of the player’s abilities and a defining moment for his season, demanding peak performance to compete at the highest level.
Reality Check
The performances of American players in Cincinnati and Toronto demonstrate their potential to be formidable contenders at the US Open if they maintain consistency and mental strength against the favorites. However, the ultimate success is heavily influenced by Sinner and Alcaraz. Many leading players skipped Toronto post-Wimbledon, indicating their heavy schedule overload. While Shelton seized the opportunity in Toronto, Cincinnati proved that it all comes down to Sinner and Alcaraz. The Spaniard secured his eighth ATP Masters 1000 title by age 22 and also ended Sinner’s 26-match hard-court winning streak due to his retirement in the final.
The two US Open favorites have shown brilliance in 2025; Carlito lost only six matches (four on hard courts), while The Fox lost only two sets on hard courts before the Cincinnati final. On the new ATP rankings, Alcaraz trails Sinner by 1,890 points (11,480 to 9,590). However, considering last year’s US Open points – Sinner’s 2,000 for winning and Alcaraz’s 50 for a second-round exit – Alcaraz is ahead by 60 points (9,540 to 9,480). This suggests the Spaniard is the favorite to claim the No. 1 after the US Open. To retain the No. 1 spot, the Italian needs to advance one round further than Alcaraz. He also needs to reach at least the third round to have a chance at staying at the top. If they meet in the final, the winner will secure the No. 1 ranking. In addition, no other player will be in pursuit of either the No. 1 or No. 2 ranking during the US Open, considering their significant lead over the rest.
Sinner’s potential quarterfinal opponents are Musetti, Draper, or Cobolli, with a likely semifinal clash against Zverev. Alcaraz, on the other hand, faces a more challenging path, potentially meeting Shelton in the quarterfinals, followed by a semifinal against Fritz, Djokovic, or Tiafoe. This suggests Sinner has a considerably easier draw compared to Alcaraz, who is potentially facing the Americans and Djokovic.
Djokovic will enter the US Open after a two-month break following his Wimbledon exit, having skipped all lead-up tournaments. As he ages, this strategy may prove less effective and lead to an earlier encounter with tougher and younger opponents. His chances of securing his 25th Grand Slam title are diminishing, and winning at Flushing Meadows against the likes of Alcaraz, Sinner, and the American trio, particularly at 38 and over a two-week period, is no longer a realistic expectation. Nole has the least favorable draw, as he faces Tiafoe, Fritz, and Alcaraz on his way to the top. Nevertheless, he cannot be disregarded as long as he remains active. Following his achievements in 2024, including an Olympic gold medal, a Career Super Slam, and becoming the oldest ATP No. 1, it is evident that he should never be underestimated.
The Verdict
The American quest to end the 22-year Grand Slam drought at the US Open in 2025 carries a significant weight of expectation. With the emerging form of Fritz, Shelton, and Tiafoe, there is a renewed sense of optimism that they could finally lift the trophy at Flushing Meadows. However, the dominance of Sinner and Alcaraz, combined with the unpredictable challenge of Djokovic, presents a formidable obstacle. While each American contender brings unique strengths to the court, consistency and mental fortitude against the world’s best will be put to the test. Whether 2025 marks the end of the drought remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Flushing Meadows will once again be the stage where American hopes rise or fall.