The world’s oldest and most iconic tennis tournament returns once again – and with it, some burning questions. Can Novak Djokovic make history by matching Roger Federer’s eight Wimbledon titles and also break the record in total Grand Slam singles titles? Can Carlos Alcaraz continue his grass-court dominance and win three in a row? Can Jannik Sinner go where no Italian man has gone before and lift the Wimbledon trophy? Or will one of the underdogs finally break through and shake things up?
A New Era on Grass: Slower Courts, Rising Chances
Wimbledon, known for its fast-paced grass courts with an eight-millimeter-high surface, offers a slick playing field with the lowest bounce. This surface favors serve-and-volley tactics and aggressive play, making sliced shots particularly effective due to the minimal bounce. Due to the unpredictable bounces, players often struggle to react in time. As a result, matches typically consist of short rallies, many of which end within just four shots.
However, the grass surface at Wimbledon has changed significantly in the last decade. It is now noticeably slower compared to the past, primarily due to changes in how short the grass is cut and the increased hardness of the court. Despite grass remaining the fastest surface, modifications such as fluffier balls and increased bounce have made it more accessible to players traditionally less successful on this surface.
Consequently, there are fewer volleys than before, and some who have recently advanced far in the tournament would have previously struggled on this surface. As the grass season comes to its end, the stage is set for another memorable Wimbledon fortnight and here is what to expect from the contenders, the underdogs, and everyone in between.
Djokovic Eyes Federer’s and Court’s Records
Djokovic remains a formidable force on all surfaces, especially in major tournaments, including Grand Slams. While his recent Roland Garros performance demonstrates his lasting status as a top 5 player across all surfaces, his current lower ranking could result in more challenging draws. Due to early upsets, he avoided matches against several strong contenders (Shapovalov, Humbert, Medvedev) until the quarterfinals of Roland Garros.
After dropping the first set, he clinched a crucial win over Zverev in the quarterfinals. Despite a 3-0 loss against Sinner in the semifinals, he played well and was competitive in each of the three sets. This proves that if Djokovic ends with a relatively easy draw leading up to the semifinals, he poses a significant threat on any surface.
Still More to Come: Djokovic’s Ongoing Wimbledon Tale
Djokovic has made Wimbledon his personal playground since 2018. In his last 46 matches on grass, he has won 43 – a staggering stat that underlines just how comfortable he is playing on grass. This stat is even more impressive considering that throughout the past 15 seasons, he has typically opted for rest following the tiring clay court season, playing just a single pre-Wimbledon grass event, the 2017 Eastbourne Open.
Despite this consistent strategy of forgoing pre-Wimbledon grass tournaments, his results at Wimbledon have been outstanding. He dropped just four sets across the 2023 and 2024 Wimbledon tournaments leading up to the finals against Alcaraz. He hasn’t missed a Wimbledon final since 2018, and even at 38, his movement, precision, and grass-court experience keep him in a league of his own.
The seven-time champion is chasing not only Federer’s Wimbledon record but also his own place in the history books: an 8th Wimbledon title would be his 25th Grand Slam title, taking him past Margaret Court’s record in Grand Slam singles titles. This season, Djokovic has shown the first real signs of decline, with age beginning to catch up to him. Still, despite his age, slightly lower ranking (ATP no. 5) and seeding (sixth), and potentially tougher early matchups, Djokovic remains the man to beat at Wimbledon.
Alcaraz: The New King of Grass?
Carlos Alcaraz is only 22, but he has already won Wimbledon twice, and in convincing fashion. His straight-sets win over Djokovic in last year’s final was a power statement, and his overall grass record (24–3 before the 2025 grass court season) proves it wasn’t a fluke. This season, he’s coming in red-hot after cleaning up on clay, winning Monte Carlo, Rome, and Roland Garros. With his confidence sky-high after taking down Sinner in Rome and Paris, he is set to surpass Nadal’s Wimbledon record of two titles.
A victory over Jannik Sinner in Rome significantly boosted his confidence, acting as a turning point and demonstrating his dominance as the new King of Clay. Despite his success, traces of vulnerability and inconsistency were evident in matches leading up to the Roland Garros final. He dropped sets against all of his opponents except ATP 310th-ranked Giulio Zappieri and Tommy Paul.
During the Roland Garros semifinal against Musetti, Carlos was visibly nervous. He struggled with his performance, and his anxiety was quite evident. Although Musetti withdrew due to injury at 2-1 down in sets, Alcaraz’s difficulties were clear throughout the match. However, the match against Sinner was even more dramatic and challenging. After facing a discouraging 2-0 set deficit and several match points against him, he displayed remarkable resilience and mental strength, orchestrating an incredible comeback to clinch his second Roland Garros title in a row. This has absolutely been one of the top 5 matches ever, with both players pushing their physical limits, much like the “Big 3” in their prime. The match lasted a grueling 5 hours and 40 minutes. Sinner’s loss wasn’t a simple defeat, but rather Alcaraz forcing the victory through sheer determination and not giving up.
Alcaraz’s remarkable comeback not only significantly boosted his motivation but also proved his dominance, improving their H2H record to an impressive 8-4. Enduring six hours under the sun, with no on-court support and battling internal struggles, showcased an insane level of focus and mental resilience, truly testing the athletes’ capabilities. The gap between these two and the rest of the tour is significant.
From Clay to Grass: The Making of a Modern Champion
Alcaraz’s explosiveness and versatility make him especially dangerous on grass surfaces and at Wimbledon, where quick reactions are crucial. Wimbledon’s grass courts favor a serve-return-and-two-shots game, perfectly aligning with Alcaraz’s style. His strength lies in short rallies (0-4 shots), which make up 75% of his grass-court play. He has openly expressed his love for grass, as it allows him to be aggressive and frequently approach the net, even if it comes with a risk.
Even Andre Agassi, who gave the Roland Gaross trophy to Carlos, said that grass is his best surface. Who is the only player to beat him on grass in the last two years? Jack Draper at 2024 Queen’s Club – a loss that may have actually helped sharpen Alcaraz’s focus for the bigger prize. He’s chasing his third straight Wimbledon title and there’s no reason to believe he won’t get it.
Sinner’s Shot at Italian History
Since last year’s US Open triumph, Sinner is undoubtedly playing the best tennis of his career, even if Alcaraz edged him out in Rome and Paris. After winning the second Australian Open title in a row, his only appearances were in Rome and at Roland Garros. He demonstrated exceptional form, proving that his doping suspension had no lasting impact on his confidence and form.
At Roland Garros, he made a historic achievement by reaching the semifinals with a single double fault, something no one else has accomplished. In contrast to Alcaraz, he displayed absolute dominance and consistency, securing 3-0 victories in every match leading up to the final. On his path to the final, he overcame formidable opponents like Gasquet (playing with home crowd support), Lehecka, Rublev, Bublik, and Djokovic.
Jannik Sinner operates with machine-like precision and consistency, displaying a game of meticulous control and calculation. However, even machines have their weaknesses, and Carlos Alcaraz has the skills to uncover them. Unlike Sinner’s stability, Alcaraz embodies improvisation and creative flair, injecting an element of unpredictability and raw emotion into his play. In the last two years, Alcaraz has become the hacker who can bypass Sinner’s flawless system. The Roland Garros final was another proof of that, where Alcaraz’s breakthroughs led to Sinner faltering, his rhythm was disrupted and his errors rose. Amid established strategies and game plans, Alcaraz brings chaos, which sometimes proves to be the sole factor that can disrupt and overcome perfection.
The Missing Piece: Sinner’s Pursuit of Wimbledon Glory
Jannik Sinner has a solid grass court record leading up to 2025, with 23 wins and 11 losses, including tight matches against Medvedev and Djokovic at Wimbledon. However, his Wimbledon success is limited; he reached the semifinals only once, losing to Djokovic in straight sets in 2023, and the quarterfinals twice, falling to Medvedev in 2024 and Djokovic in 2022, both in tough five-set matches. However, his game has significantly improved since last year’s US Open. With increased maturity, improved fitness, and a more aggressive game style, 2025 Wimbledon could be his breakthrough. By lifting the trophy, Sinner would become the first Italian to win Wimbledon, and only the second to reach the final after Berrettini in 2021.
The Dark Horses: Who Could Crash the Party?
Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Sinner stand out as the leading contenders, yet several skilled players with strong grass court records and skills could potentially cause upsets. Let’s explore the potential dark horses for Wimbledon 2025.
Matteo Berrettini
Let’s start with Berrettini, who has an 80% win rate on grass since 2018 and has reached six finals – second only to Djokovic’s seven in that span. When healthy, his serve and forehand combo is tailor-made for this surface. This was demonstrated when he reached the Wimbledon final in 2021 against Djokovic. However, staying fit has been a challenge, and inconsistency has crept into his game. Experiencing ongoing abdominal issues, which previously forced his withdrawal from the Rome match against Ruud, he has also pulled out of ATP Stuttgart, the first grass tournament. Still, don’t be shocked if he makes a deep run.
Alexander Zverev
In theory, Zverev’s game translates well to grass—big serve, strong baseline game, decent movement. In reality, he continues to hit mental roadblocks in high-stakes moments. Until he proves he can close out matches against top-tier opponents at Slams, the jury’s still out.
Taylor Fritz
The American has a cannon of a serve and hits aggressively both forehand and backhand. He picked up solid results on grass last year, but like Zverev, he tends to lose focus in pressure moments. Fritz possesses the necessary skills to make a deep run at Wimbledon, but maintaining mental composure raises major concerns.
Jack Draper
The British lefty might be the most intriguing underdog in the draw. With a power-packed game and strong recent form, Draper has everything to thrive on grass – not to mention the support of the home crowd. But pressure is a different beast, and early-round exits at the hands of Norrie and de Minaur in previous years show he’s still learning how to handle it.
Lorenzo Musetti
Although better known for his clay-court performances, Musetti raised eyebrows last year with a stellar grass run—Queen’s Club finalist and a Wimbledon semifinalist, where he pushed Djokovic hard. After a stunning clay season and Roland Garros run, he faced an injury and similarly to Berrettini pulled out of the ATP Stuttgart. If he avoids fitness issues, he stands as one of the underdogs at Wimbledon.
Alex de Minaur
Speed is the Aussie’s weapon, and on grass, that’s gold. De Minaur moves exceptionally well, takes the ball early, and rarely gives up on points. He reached the quarterfinals last year (losing to Djokovic) and was knocked out by Berrettini the year before. Don’t rule out another strong performance.
Wimbledon Reality Check
All these dark horses bring promise, but making it to the final weekend at Wimbledon is a different level of pressure, precision, and performance. Grass surface rewards short points, lightning reactions, and mental clarity, and that’s often where experience wins out. It’s one thing to win a 250, 500, or even make a deep Masters run, but taking down Djokovic, Alcaraz, or Sinner in best-of-five sets at Centre Court is a mountain few have climbed.
Still, this is tennis – upsets happen, and momentum is everything. Wimbledon 2025 promises to be a classic: the old guard (Djokovic) holding on, the new elite (Alcaraz and Sinner) surging forward, and a hungry pack of wolves (Beretinni, Zverev, Fritz, Draper, Musetti, and De Minaur) eager to strike. Whether Djokovic makes history, Alcaraz extends his reign, or Sinner carves out his own, one thing is guaranteed – magic always finds a way at the All England Club.