With just two matchdays remaining in the 2024/25 Serie A season, the race for fourth place is heating up. Napoli, Inter and Atalanta have already booked their tickets to next season’s Champions League, but the final slot is still up for grabs and being fiercely contested by Juventus, Lazio, Roma, Bologna and Milan. A handful of points separates the five contenders, who are all ready to fight until the very last minute.
The situation after 36 rounds
- 4. Juventus – 64
- 5. Lazio – 64
- 6. Roma – 63
- 7. Bologna – 62
- 8. Milan – 60
The battle is centered between the teams from fourth to eighth place. Currently, Juventus sits fourth by virtue of head-to-head results and goal difference over Lazio, but with Roma and Bologna right behind and Milan still alive, the outcome is anything but predictable.
Juventus ambition and uncertainty
Igor Tudor’s Juventus may technically hold the final Champions League spot, but there’s no room for complacency. The Bianconeri have won just three of their last eight matches, with the recent 1-1 draw against Lazio doing little to inspire confidence. The result preserved their position, but highlighted ongoing offensive struggles and mental fragility in this final stretch.
Tudor insists that the fourth-place target remains within reach, but a clear turnaround is needed in the final two matches: at home against Udinese, then away to Venezia. On paper, both games are winnable, but Juventus have rarely shown the killer instinct this season. Without a decisive shift in mentality, they risk being overtaken.
Lazio solidity and resilience
Also sitting on 64 points, Lazio have shown impressive resilience under Marco Baroni. The Biancocelesti are leaning on key performers such as Zaccagni, Castellanos and Rovella. Their recent late equalizer against Juventus was a testament to their fighting spirit.
However, upcoming fixtures against Inter and Lecce will be anything but easy. Inter are chasing the Scudetto, while Lecce are battling for top-flight survival. Lazio will need both grit and quality to get the job done.
Sir Claudio chases the dream
Roma arguably face the toughest schedule among the contenders, but they also have one of the highest ceilings. Claudio Ranieri took charge of a team in disarray and guided them to 19 straight games unbeaten before a 2-1 loss to Atalanta briefly halted their momentum.
Despite missing their technical leader Paulo Dybala for large stretches, the Giallorossi have shown clear identity, compactness and fighting spirit. Up next? Milan at home, then Torino away. Roma’s fate is hanging by a thread, but they’ve shown they’re in this fight to the end.
Bologna aiming for the big hit
Bologna remains one of this season’s biggest revelations. After the Thiago Motta era, Vincenzo Italiano has maintained the team’s tactical organization while getting the most out of talents like Orsolini, Castro e Ndoye. The recent 2-1 loss to Milan was a blow, but far from fatal.
With Fiorentina away and Genoa at home left to play, Bologna still has the chance to make history. Neither fixture will be easy, but if they rediscover the intensity they’ve shown throughout the season, a second straight Champions League qualification is within reach. The city is buzzing with anticipation.
A desperate yet living hope
After a chaotic season marked by management turmoil, Fonseca’s sacking and the arrival of Sérgio Conceicao, Milan are chasing a footballing miracle. Their recent form has been inconsistent, but the victory over Bologna officially kept them in the race. Costly points dropped against lower-tier teams still haunt them.
With 60 points, the Rossoneri must win both of their remaining games (away to Roma, home to Monza) and hope that Juventus, Lazio, Roma and Bologna stumble. A tall order, but not impossible. With players like Leao, Pulisic and Reijnders in the squad, Milan certainly don’t lack talent, but the pressure is immense!
Final two fixtures for each of the five contenders
- Juventus: vs Udinese (home), vs Venezia (away)
- Lazio: vs Inter (away), vs Lecce (home)
- Roma: vs Milan (home), vs Torino (away)
- Bologna: vs Fiorentina (away), vs Genoa (home)
- Milan: vs Roma (away), vs Monza (home)
Plenty of head-to-head clashes and matchups against sides still fighting for European or Serie A survival ensure that nothing is settled yet.
Who has the edge?
At the moment, bookmakers and statistical models give a slight edge to Juventus, primarily due to their favorable schedule. Lazio are penalized by their clash with Inter, while Roma have the opportunity to eliminate a direct rival in Milan next matchday.
Bologna and Milan, further back in the standings, need a combination of favorable results and strong performances. In a scenario where multiple teams finish level on points, goal difference could be the deciding factor – another detail to watch closely.
Until the very last minute
Rarely has the Champions League race in Serie A been this tight and intense. Five teams, one seat left at the elite European table. Goal difference, head-to-head records, and fixture timing – every small factor could tip the scale. This is the beauty of Italian football: a drama filled with emotion, regrets, and maybe, just maybe, glory.
Who will board the train to Europe’s biggest stage?